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MAY 5,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:52 P.M. ET:

CHILL FOR TRUMP – Many Republican bigwigs are reluctant to jump on the Trumpwagon.  From USA TODAY:    Donald Trump may be trying to consolidate his party’s support but there are two big names he shouldn’t count on.  Spokesmen for former presidents George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush told The Texas Tribune the Bushes won't be on the list of Trump endorsers.  “At age 91, President Bush is retired from politics,” a spokesman for Bush 41 told The Texas Tribune. “He came out of retirement to do a few things for Jeb, but those were the exceptions that proved the rule.”  And his son Bush 43? No plans either.  He “does not plan to participate in or comment on the presidential campaign,” a spokesman for Bush 43 told the Tribune.  And Laura Bush hinted that she might support Hillary Clinton.  Clearly, there is no love lost for Trump, who savaged Jeb Bush during the campaign.  It's now Trump's proper role to try to mend fences.  His viciousness is coming back to haunt him.

YEAH, RIGHT – From Newsbusters:   With no sense of irony or humor, a new MSNBC ad claims the network “seeks different perspectives.” Yes, the cable channel home to some of most liberal hosts and journalists on the planet, touted, “We seek different perspectives, connect the dots, approach the story from all the angles.”  The condescending commercial started airing on Tuesday. The unidentified voice lectured, “We break news. Yeah. But we do more than that. If all you want is headlines, check your Twitter feed.” The announcer smugly continued, “We go beyond the sound bites.”  Incredible.  They must think very little of their audience to believe that viewers can't tell that MSNBC is the voice of the political left.  The "different perspectives" go from near left to far left.  Maybe middle left on a generous day.

GREAT MOMENTS IN TEACHER TRAINING – From Fox:   A 7-year-old girl in Texas managed to get out of an after-school program Monday after she tricked her school’s staff to believe a fake excuse note some say is clearly written by a child.  ABC13.com reported that the letter penned in over-sized print was succinct: “I want Rosabella to go too dus (sic) 131 today.” She misspelled "bus."  The girl was allowed to leave. Neighbors later said they spotted her waiting outside her home.   Her father, Charlie Dahu, criticized staff at her school — Sheldon Elementary in Harris County — for believing that her parents wrote such a childlike note.  The Sheldon school district told the station it was investigating the situation and reviewing its training procedures.  I can just see those teachers five years from now – teaching political history and social justice.

May 5, 2016       Permalink

TRUMP PREPARES – AT 10:58 A.M. ET:  We've not been fans of Donald Trump here, but he'll be covered as we cover anyone else – fairly.  He clearly has a lot of work to do to heal, if possible, some of the wounds he caused in his almost brutal campaign for the Republican nomination.  At least he's starting.  From Fox: 

Donald Trump, after effectively locking up the Republican nomination, is shifting gears to launch a national search for a running mate while teasing the possibility he could roll out key Cabinet picks as well before the July convention.

“I like the idea of doing some of this before we go into Cleveland,” Trump told Fox News’ Bill O'Reilly Wednesday night, when asked about announcing Cabinet posts early. “I could do that and I think it would be well received.”

Considering how packed the GOP field was this cycle – at one point, containing 17 candidates – Trump’s VP “short-list” is bound to be rather lengthy, especially as the campaign says they plan to consider most of his former presidential primary rivals.

Some analysts and observers put Ohio Gov. John Kasich in the top tier of that list, considering he leads the critical general election swing state. Trump said he hasn’t spoken with Kasich since he dropped out of the race Wednesday, but “would certainly consider him.”

One open question is whether many of these potential running mates would, in turn, consider Trump. Personal and partisan tensions flared throughout the 2016 primary, as barbed insults flew between Trump and whichever candidate represented the biggest threat of the moment – and his opponents frequently challenged his conservative credentials.

Several of those vanquished foes have since reconciled with Trump, including New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, now involved in the running mate selection process.

COMMENT:  I don't see what gain there is in naming people early, including the vice presidential choice.  All a presidential candidate does is produce new targets for the opposition.  Of course, if a nominee can haul in a major star for vice president, it's a different story.  But I don't see anyone out there in that category.  We don't seem to have many major stars right now. 

A great danger for Trump, and the story suggested it, is that Trump may be turned down by some of his choices, and those rejections could go public, diminishing Trump's status as a presidential nominee.  He should tread carefully.  He is not overly loved.

May 5, 2016       Permalink

LET THE MUDSLINGING BEGIN – AT 10:18 A.M. ET:   The Dems are organizing to fight Donald Trump, and they will go all out.  As readers know, I've not supported Trump, but you may be certain that the battle against him will be ugly, personal, and probably filled with fabrications.  From the New York Daily News: 

WASHINGTON — A Democratic group is trolling for anti-Donald Trump stories — and trolling the presumptive Republican nominee — with a new website called DonaldTrumpScrewedMe.com.

Real class.

American Bridge, a Democratic outside group whose head has ties to Hillary Clinton, is launching the new website aimed at getting some nasty facts on The Donald. The website is geo-targeted so if you're in or near one of Trump's many properties, it will pop up in your Google ads.

"Were you one of Donald Trump's victimized employees? Do you know of illegal or inappropriate behavior at one of Trump's businesses or construction sites?" the website asks. "If you have been personally screwed by Donald Trump, or have a friend or relative who has been taken advantage of by Trump, we want to hear from you!"

The digital ads will target Trump's properties in Manhattan, Atlantic City, and Palm Beach to seek information from current and former employees and tenants, as well as "people who were scammed by Trump's various business ventures," according to the group.

COMMENT:  I'll suspect they'll come up with a lot.  Trump is a rough, tough businessman surrounded by a protective squad of lawyers.   He has made enemies.

But there are dangers to the Democrats in a campaign like this.  The first is that it depends on claims that are probably not easily verified.  If Trump can prove one or two of the claims false, the campaign collapses.

The second is that Trump has also made many friends.  People have had wonderful careers in his company.  They'll be called upon to give testimony to his qualities as an employer, and creator of jobs, and that can neutralize the Democratic campaign.

May 5, 2016       Permalink

ANOTHER CRITICAL ELECTION – AT 9:03 A.M. ET:  And it ain't here.   Important local elections are being held across Britain today.  They test the strength, or more happily the weakness, of the Labour Party's new, militant leftist head, Jeremy Corbyn.  He is the most left-wing party leader in British history, and pals around with folks like Hamas and Hezbollah.  From The New York Times:

LONDON — Londoners will decide whether to elect Sadiq Khan, the Labour front-runner, as their first Muslim mayor on Thursday, but in elections being held across Britain the wider results will pose a bigger test for the party as a whole — especially for Jeremy Corbyn, its left-wing leader.

Ahead of this election cycle it would usually be the governing party — not the opposition — feeling the pressure. And these elections come at a particularly precarious time for Prime Minister David Cameron’s governing Conservatives as the party faces a crisis in the steel industry and strikes by doctors. In March, a cabinet minister quit, and the Conservative Party is deeply split over a referendum in June on whether Britain should quit the European Union.

In London, Labour’s mayoral candidate, Mr. Khan, who is the son of an immigrant bus driver, is the favorite to replace the outgoing mayor, Boris Johnson, a Conservative.

But outside London the elections may provide Labour with more ominous results that could increase pressure on Mr. Corbyn at a time when newspapers have been filled with speculation about plots against him from within the party in the aftermath of a dispute over allegations of anti-Semitism in its ranks.

And...

Things would be “pretty bad” for Labour, apart from the London mayoral contest “and London should not be of much comfort to Jeremy Corbyn because Sadiq Khan campaigned despite Jeremy Corbyn,” said Steven Fielding, director of the Center for British Politics at the University of Nottingham. He was referring to the fact that Mr. Khan has distanced himself from Mr. Corbyn since last year, when Mr. Khan nominated Mr. Corbyn in Labour’s leadership contest, but then opted not to vote for him.

COMMENT:  Britain is one of our closest allies, and what happens in Britain politically is of importance here.  Keeping the Labour Party out of power is in the national interest of the United States.  Mr. Corbyn is so extreme that he actually wants to abolish the British army.

These are local races, but they usually indicate national trends.  Hope for conservative victories.

May 5,  2016     Permalink

MAY 4,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. :

CHRIS, WE HARDLY KNEW YE – Chris Matthews, of MSNBC, was widely quoted as getting tingly feelings up his leg when listening to Barack Obama in 2008.  Apparently, the tingliness has returned, but the cause is different.  Chris was caught on an open mike expressing his passions.  From London's Daily Mail: MSNBC anchor Chris Matthews has been caught ogling Melania Trump live on national television.
The Hardball host was heard enthusiastically commenting on Mrs Trump's 'runway walk' as she joined her husband for his victory speech in Indiana on Tuesday.  While Brian Williams was speaking about the impact the result would have on the Republican party, Matthews could be heard talking about Mrs Trump's appearance.  Apparently unaware he was speaking into a hot mic, Matthews said: 'Did you see her walk? Runway walk. My God is that good. I could watch that runway show.'  I love it, I love it.  MSNBC is very lefty, presumably interested in women's rights and dignity.  I wonder how the local feminists at his network will react to Oglegate.  I want to know.

OUTRAGEOUS – From Hypeline:   Jason Riley — a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute and a columnist for The Wall Street Journal — has been disinvited from speaking at Virginia Tech, according to National Review.  “Mr. Riley, who is black, has attracted some negative attention since his publication in 2014 of Please Stop Helping Us: How Liberals Make It Harder for Blacks to Succeed,” wrote National Association of Scholars President Peter Wood, who broke the story.  According to a memo obtained by Mr. Wood, the head of the Virginia Tech Finance Department, Professor Vijay Singal, vetoed the speaking arrangement because of the potential that there would be protests. Even though there were zero active plans to protest the event, the mere potential of protests was enough for Singal to veto the speaking arrangement.  Another great moment in higher (than what?) education. 

MEXICO ALMOST HEARTS TRUMP – From Breitbart:   SANTA MONICA, California — During an exclusive interview with Breitbart News, former Mexican President Vicente Fox apologized Wednesday for the vulgar language he has used regarding GOP frontrunner Donald Trump’s proposal to build a wall along the southern border and invited the likely Republican nominee to Mexico to see the border from the other side.  Earlier this year, Fox said that he would not pay for Trump’s “**** wall,” and called Trump “Ignorant … crazy … egocentric … nasty … [a] false prophet.” Trump then called on Fox to apologize.  On Wednesday, he did so — in an exclusive interview with Breitbart News — and added that he wanted Trump to come to Mexico to see the border from the other side.  I suspect that a lot of apologies will be in the mail now that Trump will be the nominee.  I think Trump should go to Mexico.  If he comes out with an "understanding" with Fox, it's a plus.

May 4, 2016       Permalink

AND IN THE REAL WORLD – AT 11:15 A.M. ET:   The dangers grow, and the next president will have to deal with them.  From CNN:

Washington (CNN) ISIS has the capability to stage a Paris-style attack in the U.S. using local cells to strike in multiple locations and inflict dozens of casualties, according to the Obama administration's top U.S. intelligence official.

"They do have that capacity," Director of National Intelligence James Clapper told CNN's Peter Bergen in an exclusive interviews on "AC 360" on terrorism, Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda's most virulent offshoot -- ISIS.

"That's something we worry about a lot in the United States, that they could conjure up a raid like they did in Paris or Brussels," where March attacks on a train and at an airport left 32 dead and 300 people injured, Clapper said. The November Paris attacks killed at least 130.

However, President Barack Obama and some of his other security advisors spoke of the threat in less stark terms and emphasized efforts to protect the U.S.

Obama told Bergen that "we, here in the United States, face less of a threat than Europe" from ISIS. National Security Adviser Susan Rice said "whether or not" ISIS can attack the U.S., the administration would do "our utmost to try to prevent it."

Still, Obama said, "The Paris-style attack, the Brussels style attack is the challenge that we're going to continue to face."

COMMENT:  Odds are that there will at least be an attempt, maybe more than one, to launch a Paris-style attack here.  That's what ISIS is about.  And an attack could be launched by Americans who have gone secretly to the Mideast to be trained, and then returned to the USA. 

May 4, 2016       Permalink

BLUNDERING HILLARY – AT 9:41 A.M. ET:  As we noted below, conventional wisdom holds that Hillary Clinton has a lock on the election.  Indeed, a new CNN poll has her up 13 points over Trump:

Indianapolis (CNN) As Donald Trump captures the mantle of presumptive Republican nominee, a new poll finds he begins his general election campaign well behind Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton.

The new CNN/ORC Poll, completed ahead of Trump's victory last night, found Clinton leads 54% to 41%, a 13-point edge over the New York businessman, her largest lead since last July.

Clinton is also more trusted than Trump on many issues voters rank as critically important, with one big exception. By a 50% to 45% margin, voters say Trump would do a better job handling the economy than Clinton would.

Almost 9 out of 10 voters in the poll called the economy extremely or very important to their vote for president, outranking any other issue tested in the poll.

No doubt Clinton holds the lead now, but I wouldn't put too much stock in those numbers.   First of all, Trump is now past the primary contest and can campaign as a presidential candidate.  Second, Hillary is a god-awful campaigner.  Look what she did in West Virginia just a few days ago.  From the New York Post, via Powerline:

Figuring she has the Democratic nomination sewn up, Hillary Clinton this week headed to swing state West Virginia, aiming to “feel the pain” of coal country.

But then she ran into Bo Copley, a recently laid-off miner.

He hit her with her comments from last month, explaining her clean-energy program: “We’re going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business,” she’d said.

Bo didn’t like that much: “I just want to know how you can say you’re going to put a lot of coal miners out of, out of jobs, and then come in here and tell us how you’re going to be our friend.”

Clinton’s eye-rolling answer: “What I was saying is that the way things are going now, we will continue to lose jobs.”

Not true: She was plainly promising her policy would put miners out of work.

More lies: “I didn’t mean that we were going to do it, what I said was, that is going to happen unless we take action to try to help and prevent it.”

COMMENT:  You'd think she would have come with specific ideas for saving the economy of West Virginia.  She didn't.  She just claimed that her comment about putting coal miners out of business had been misunderstood.   It's typical Hillary.  She doesn't care about these people, and isn't very good at hiding her indifference. 

True, the Clinton campaign will throw everything at Trump, and appropriately so.  His vulgarity is a matter of record, and there is plenty of audiotape to prove it.   But Trump is a relentless campaigner, and he reaches people.  Hillary makes an appointment with people.

May 4,  2016     Permalink

AFTERMATH – AT 9:08 A.M. ET:  It is over on the Republican side.  Trump will be the nominee.  This morning the internet is filled with political eulogies for Ted Cruz.  How, his supporters ask, did it happen?  And why did he drop out after last night's loss in Indiana?

It happened because Donald Trump, no matter what we may think of him, has developed the ability to connect with the grievances of very angry voters.  That is the ability of a leader, but is also the talent of the demagogue.  Which way Trump will go may be the biggest political story since the victory of Ronald Reagan in 2008. 

The first reaction to Ted Cruz's abrupt withdrawal from the race was shock.  His supporters expected him to fight on.  I think we should take him at face value when he says he dropped out because, after Indiana yesterday, there was no route to the nomination.  He's a young man.  He has a presidential future...but he must first become more expert in personal political dealings.  Ted Cruz got virtually no real support from members of the Senate or from the Republican Party generally.  He had made too many enemies with his independent, somewhat self-righteous manner.  He can fix that.  There will be an election in 2020, if there's a country left in 2020.

Conventional wisdom holds that the odds favor Hillary Clinton in the general election.  Summing up all I've seen in media this morning, I'd say that the odds favor no one.  This is an utterly unpredictable year.

Consider this:  We've never had a nominee quite like Donald Trump.  The last time someone from outside electoral politics won the nomination of his party was 1952, when the Republican nominee was Dwight D. Eisenhower.  But Eisenhower, even though he'd had no electoral experience, was hardly an outsider.  Architect of victory in Europe, consummate diplomat who'd held the wartime alliance together, first commander of NATO, he was a veteran of the world stage.  Trump is from the private sector.  We'll see if the experience translates well.

May 4,  2016     Permalink